A feature of The Hamilton Project’s monthly employment analysis has been the monthly “jobs gap” – the number of jobs that the U.S. economy needs to create in order to return to pre-recession employment levels while also absorbing the people who enter the labor force each month. This month, the Project focuses on why those projections have changed over time. As it has become clear that the recovery will persist for at least several more years, a more accurate calculation of the jobs gap requires accounting for the ways in which the labor force will evolve. When we began our jobs gap calculations in May 2010, we assumed we would need 125,000 jobs per month to account for new entrants to the labor force, which lines up with the rate of labor force growth predicted by BLS before the start of the Great Recession. However, as a result of new methodology based on population estimates, we now project that at a job creation rate of 208,000 per month, it will take until 2020 to close the jobs gap, rather than late 2023 as we had projected with the old method. Read the full piece here.
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