Economic Security

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Economic security and economic growth are mutually reinforcing. The more security that people achieve in their personal finances — through personal savings and social insurance — the more confidence they place in the future. Economically secure people are more likely to seize opportunities, bounce back from adverse events, and take risks such as starting a business or trying a new career that can pay off for the individual and the economy as a whole. The Hamilton Project explores innovative proposals to increase individuals' economic security.

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NEW PAPER

Using Data to Improve the Performance of Workforce Training

Papers • April 2013 • Louis S. Jacobson, Robert J. LaLonde

Workforce training programs have the potential to improve the lives and incomes of millions of Americans by lifting many into the middle class and preventing others from falling out of it. Despite their promise, however, too many workers enroll in courses that they do not complete or complete courses that do not lead to better jobs, reducing the benefits to workers and the economic return to workforce investments. Louis Jacobson of New Horizons Economic Research and Robert LaLonde of the University of Chicago propose a competition to increase the return on training investments by developing the data and measures necessary to provide the information prospective trainees need, by presenting the information in user-friendly “report cards,” by providing help for prospective trainees to use the information effectively, and by creating incentives for states to implement permanent information systems once they prove cost-effective.

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NEW PAPER

Sequestration’s Threat to America’s Most Vulnerable

Papers • March 2013 • Michael Greenstone, Adam Looney

In this month’s employment analysis, The Hamilton Project looks at current poverty trends in the United States, the important role of government support programs, and how sequestration could remove critical aspects of the safety net in the midst of continued labor-market weakness. The Project finds sequestration could throw many American families back into poverty during this sensitive period of economic recovery by cutting the very programs that are helping them stay above water.

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NEW PAPER

An Evidence-Based Path to Disability Insurance Reform

Papers • February 2013 • Jeffrey B. Liebman, Jack A. Smalligan

Jeffrey Liebman and Jack Smalligan propose a path to improve our disability insurance system, through demonstration projects and administrative changes, that could potentially increase employment and economic engagement among workers with disabilities and provide more rapid and reliable resolution of disability insurance claims for those who cannot work.

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NEW PAPER

Better Ways to Promote Saving through the Tax System

Papers • February 2013 • Karen Dynan

Karen Dynan examines the design of government incentives for personal savings, outlining how reforms to these programs would improve saving and economic security for low-income households and reduce expensive and ineffective federal subsidies for high-income households.

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15 Ways to Rethink the Federal Budget

Papers • February 2013

As policymakers work to find solutions to reduce the federal budget deficit, The Hamilton Project presents 15 pragmatic, evidenced-based proposals that would both reduce the deficit and also bring broader economic benefits from leading experts from a variety of backgrounds.

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15 Ideas for Smart Deficit Reduction

Papers • February 2013 • Michael Greenstone, Adam Looney

Hamilton Project Director Michael Greenstone and Policy Director Adam Looney preview The Project’s forthcoming budget report, which includes fifteen pragmatic, evidenced-based proposals to reduce the deficit and achieve broad-based economic benefits.

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The Hamilton Project Policy Response to the State of the Union Address

Papers • February 2013

In his State of the Union address, President Barack Obama outlined an ambitious second-term agenda focusing on policies to help strengthen America’s middle class through broad-based economic growth. Since its launch in 2006, The Hamilton Project has released a range of targeted policy proposals that provide innovative, evidence-based approaches to address many of the priorities set forth in this year’s address, which we offer as a resource to policymakers in response to specific ideas mentioned by the President this week.

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Not All Cuts Are Created Equal: Why Smart Deficit Reduction Matters

Papers • February 2013 • Michael Greenstone, Adam Looney

The federal budget deficit is still the nation’s major economic focus. In this month’s employment analysis, The Hamilton Project explores the potential impacts of enacted budget cuts, including the looming sequester, on America’s economic well-being. The Project finds that smart deficit reduction will require creative thinking about which budget areas can be made more efficient without damaging programs that are essential to promoting economic growth.

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How Does Our Economic Future Compare with That of 2008? A Glimpse at America’s Road to Recovery

Papers • November 2012 • Michael Greenstone, Adam Looney

As Americans prepare to cast their ballots for president, many voters are pausing to assess the state of the economy. In this month’s employment analysis, The Hamilton Project reviews the available data to explore whether America’s economic future looks brighter today than it did four years ago and finds that the data clearly indicate a much rosier future for the United States than was the case in 2008.

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August Jobs Report: The Private Sector Continues to Grow

Papers • August 2012 • Adam Looney, Michael Greenstone

The unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent in August, according to today’s employment report, which is the lowest rate since the onset of the recession. The private sector added more than 100,000 jobs, continuing a steady recovery that has added 4.6 million jobs over the last 30 months. As of August, our nation faces a “jobs gap” of 11.3 million jobs.

All Economic Security Papers…

Evolution of the “Job Gap” and Possible Scenarios for Growth

May 3, 2013 • Charts

The Hamilton Project tracks the monthly “job gap,” which is the number of jobs that need to be created in order to return to pre-recession employment levels while still absorbing the workers entering the labor force each month.

Median Earnings and Distribution of Students by Attainment in Community Colleges

April 5, 2013 • Charts

Many workers can benefit substantially from worker training programs, which provide education and skill development that lead to increased economic opportunities and better jobs. Students who earn two-year degrees in a high-return field, four-year degrees after a two-year degree, or certain career-oriented certificates, earn median salaries of $34,000 or more per year. Students who earn two-year degrees in low-return fields or who do not complete their programs earn around 33 percent less. Using data to help prospective trainees make better, informed decisions on which training programs offer the best returns based on trainee-specific criteria can help put more workers on a path to greater prosperity.

U.S. Personal Saving Rate, 1970-2012

March 14, 2013 • Charts

The U.S. personal saving rate has declined dramatically over the past several decades and is currently very low by historical standards. Americans saved about 4 percent of after-tax personal income in 2012, down from average saving rates of 5.5 percent in the 1990s, 8.6 percent in the 1980s, and 9.6 percent in the 1970s. Although, in the short run, higher personal savings reduces consumption and can slow the economic recovery, over the longer run, higher personal saving would lead to stronger economic growth. The correlation between a country’s saving rate and its investment rate remains large and significant despite the globalization of international capital market.

U.S. National Defense Outlays

March 14, 2013 • Charts

The U.S. military is the strongest in the world, but it is also by far the most costly. The Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA) legislated $500 billion of cuts to the national defense budget over the next ten years—an abrupt change that could weaken the Department of Defense (DoD) if the cuts are not distributed efficiently. However, as this graph demonstrates, sudden and significant changes to defense spending are not new challenges. Although the national defense budget has seen many fluctuations from 1940 to 2010, it is now at its highest level since World War II. With the right policy changes, the DoD can absorb the BCA cuts while strengthening our force and maintaining its powerful position in the world.

Debt-to-GDP Ratio under Various Policy Assumptions, 2012-2023

March 14, 2013 • Charts

Over the next ten years, approximately $4 trillion of deficit reduction are set to take place through the Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA) the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (ATRA) and the sequestration, which went into effect on March 1, 2013. This graph, from the introduction of The Hamilton Project’s 15 Ways to Rethink the Federal Budget shows how these policies are projected to affect the debt-to-GDP ratio over the next decade. With the sequester in place, our debt will rise to a high of about 78 percent of GDP in 2014 before falling and reaching about 74 percent by 2023.

Changes in Income and Tax Rates: The tax code has exacerbated increasing income inequality

May 3, 2012 • Charts

Earnings have risen dramatically at the top since 1979—by more than 250 percent for households in the top 1 percent of the income distribution. At the same time, many households at the middle and bottom have experienced stagnating incomes or even declines in earnings. Widening income inequality for workers has had significant consequences for American families, including greater disparities in the economic situations of children.

Duration of Unemployment, 1980-2010

November 5, 2010 • Charts

Today's out-of-work Americans are experiencing longer spells of unemployment than in any recent recession. In October 2010, half of all unemployed workers had been unemployed for more than 21 weeks.

Changes in Employment-to-Population Ratio During U.S. Recessions

August 12, 2010 • Charts

The fall in employment from the 2007-2009 Great Recession is the most severe fall during a recession since World War II.

Federal Debt as a Percentage of GDP

April 20, 2010 • Charts

Federal debt as a percentage of GDP continues to grow in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

Nonemployment to Population Ratios, Ages 25-54 by Gender

April 20, 2010 • Charts

This figure from the 2010 Hamilton Project strategy paper "From Recession to Recovery to Renewal" illustrates changes in the male and female nonemployment to population ratio between 1945 and 2010.

All Charts…

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Strengthening the Safety Net

April 17, 2012 • Robert Greenstein

Hamilton Project Advisory Council member Bob Greenstein testified before the House Committee on the Budget on the social safety net.

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Testimony of Alan S. Blinder

January 26, 2012 • Alan S. Blinder

Advisory Council member Alan S. Blinder testifies before the Senate Budget Committee on his views on the economy and budget.

All Speeches & Testimony…

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FEATURED

Real Specifics: 15 Ways to Rethink the Federal Budget—Part II: Addressing Entitlements, Taxation, and Revenues

February 26, 2013 • Washington, DC

On February 26th, The Hamilton Project hosted a forum featuring a diverse group of experts from around the country who discussed 13 targeted policy proposals that were released that day on reforming entitlement spending, tax reform, and how to create new sources of revenue and efficiency. The proposals provide specific strategies on how lawmakers can address many different areas of the budget, and address options to reduce both mandatory and discretionary spending.

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FEATURED

Real Specifics: 15 Ways to Rethink the Federal Budget—Part I: Budgeting for a Modern Military

February 22, 2013 • Washington, DC

On February 22nd, The Hamilton Project at Brookings hosted a forum and released new proposals on ways to create greater efficiency in the U.S. defense budget while maintaining our national security. Retired four-star Admiral Gary Roughead, a former chief of Naval Operations; Kori Schake, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution; and Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Cindy Williams, a former assistant director of the Congressional Budget Office, offered two new proposals for reducing future defense budgets.

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U.S. Immigration Policy: The Border Between Reform and the Economy

May 15, 2012 • Washington, DC 20045

America’s immigration policy no longer serves the needs of our fast-changing global economy. Failure to address immigration reform at the national level has resulted in missed opportunities to spur America’s economic growth and productivity. On May 15, The Hamilton Project held a forum exploring the challenges and opportunities for immigration reform in today’s political and economic climate.

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The Future of American Jobs, Part II

December 3, 2010 • Washington, DC

The Hamilton Project and the Center for American Progress hosted the second of two conferences addressing the long-term challenges of creating quality jobs in the United States and preparing American workers for those jobs of the future. As part of the event, The Hamilton Project and the Center for American Progress released three targeted policy proposals by outside scholars to deal with the long-term challenges associated with the new global economy.

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Hard Times, Solid Policies to Renew American Communities

October 13, 2010 • Washington, DC

Governor Jennifer Granholm (D-Mich.) joined former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin, Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin, New York City Deputy Mayor Steve Goldsmith, and other experts in a Hamilton Project forum focused on policy solutions for renewing American communities. The Hamilton Project released a strategy paper and three new proposals that provide a range of options for helping communities and workers recover from recent economic shocks.

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The Future of American Jobs

April 30, 2010 • Washington, DC

The Hamilton Project partnered with the Center for American Progress to host a forum on the country’s employment situation. The event featured a discussion with New York City Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and NEC director Lawrence H. Summers, moderated by PBS host Charlie Rose.

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From Recession to Recovery to Renewal

April 20, 2010 • Washington, DC

Vice President Joe Biden gave the keynote speech at a forum to kick-off The Hamilton Project’s 2010 policy agenda. The event featured two roundtable discussions to highlight innovative policy ideas and the more general challenges facing the U.S. economy.

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Improving the Measurement of Poverty

December 9, 2008 • Washington, DC

The Project held a policy forum and released a discussion paper by Rebecca Blank and Mark Greenberg on the need for a new national poverty measure that better reflects the actual economic conditions of low-income Americans.

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From Prison to Work: Overcoming Barriers to Reentry

December 5, 2008 • Washington, DC

The Hamilton Project hosted a policy discussion on the challenges of prisoner reentry that featured a keynote address by U.S. Senator Jim Webb (D-Va.). The event also featured a policy roundtable with a diverse group of experts on the need for a national prisoner reentry strategy.

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Missing Markets: Fostering Market-Based Solutions to Major Risks

June 5, 2008 • Washington, DC

The Hamilton Project hosted a discussion on what the government can do to foster market-based solutions to major risks. Markets that could potentially mitigate or reduce some of the biggest risks faced by the American people and their broader communities are nonexistent or underutilized.

All Events…

Evolution of the “Job Gap” and Possible Scenarios for Growth

May 3, 2013 • Charts

Investing in What Works: The Importance of Evidence-Based Policymaking—Photo Gallery

April 19, 2013 • Photo Galleries

On April 17th, The Hamilton Project at Brookings and Results for America, an initiative of America Achieves, co-hosted a forum and release two new papers on the important role of evidence in policymaking. U.S. Senator Rob Portman (R-OH), U.S. Senator Mark Warner (D-VA), Alan Krueger, Chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, and other distinguished experts participated in roundtable discussions on the proposals and how evidence-based policymaking can improve the effectiveness of federally funded programs.

Investing in What Works: The Importance of Evidence-Based Policymaking—Introduction & Panel 1

April 18, 2013 • Video

Founder & Chairman of Evercore Partners Roger Altman provided welcoming remarks to kick off this forum co-hosted by The Hamilton Project and Results for America. In the first panel discussion, Jeffrey Liebman of Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government and Louis Jacobson of New Horizons Economic Research presented new proposals on the crucial role of evidence and results in policymaking. The authors were joined by former White House Domestic Policy Council Director John Bridgeland, New York City Deputy Mayor Linda Gibbs, Results for America Managing Director Michele Jolin and Hamilton Project Director Michael Greenstone for a discussion of the new papers.

Investing in What Works: The Importance of Evidence-Based Policymaking—Panel 2

April 18, 2013 • Video

U.S. Senator Rob Portman (R-OH), U.S. Senator Mark Warner (D-VA), and Alan Krueger, Chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, joined former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin for a roundtable discussion on the importance of harnessing evidence to improve the effectiveness of federally funded programs.