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Are We Headed for the Soft-ish Landing Projected by CBO and the Fed?

Event Recap: Reducing Child Poverty in the United States

Reducing Child Poverty in the United States

The 2021 expansion of the Child Tax Credit led to a historic reduction in poverty in the United States. This essay investigates how the CTC affected child poverty in states and finds that poverty reductions were the highest in low-cost, high poverty states.

Wendy Edelberg and Melissa Kearney make the case for a novel and efficient Child Tax Credit design that increases the value of the CTC and addresses common concerns about expansion.

In-kind nutrition benefits—both in the form of prepared meals and grocery vouchers—support a healthy and hunger-free childhood.

Nurse Licensure Compacts Before, During, and After COVID

How Worried Should We Be if the Debt Ceiling Isn’t Lifted?

steinmetz-silber

The Hamilton Project: 2022 in Figures

Event Recap: The Economic Benefits of Immigration

The Economic Benefits of Immigration

Immigration is good for the U.S. economy and for the fiscal picture at the federal level, but some local areas experience adverse fiscal impacts when new immigrants arrive. Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson propose a transparent system for redistributing resources from the federal government to these localities.

In a policy proposal, Jennifer Hunt identifies reforms to the U.S. immigration system that would increase its economic benefits to the native born, enforce its fairness, and strengthen the application of its laws.

Robert Greenstein identifies priorities for expanding the Child Tax Credit. Pulling from research on the credit's impact, he urges strengthening the CTC for low-income children as much as possible.

The Labor Market Needs to Soften—but Not as Much as Some Think

In this economic analysis, we determine the degree to which firms that are looking to hire a significant number of workers can expand employment (a “hot” labor market) or cannot (a “tight” labor market). This analysis suggests that a high job opening-to-unemployment rate ratio overstates how hard it is for…

Event Recap: Reimagining Industrial Policy for the Service and Tech Sectors

Reimagining Industrial Policy for the Service and Tech Sectors

Nine economic facts about the service sector illustrate recent trends in spending, employment, and inflation as the country continues to rebalance.

To build the intellectual foundations, data, and analytics needed to inform national technology strategy, Erica R.H. Fuchs proposes the creation of a national capability for cross-mission critical technology analytics.

A modern approach to industrial policy must target “good-jobs externalities” and include the service sector, Dani Rodrik argues. He proposes two specific initiatives: one at the local level and the other at the federal level.

[4501] [recession_ready] Recessions

A COVID-19 Labor Force Legacy: The Drop in Dual-Worker Families

Defying expectations, the business sector appears to have weathered the COVID pandemic and found a renewed gear of dynamism in the process. This analysis looks at the outcomes of initial business closings, employment impacts, new business formations, and restructuring of business activities.

Food Security Shouldn’t Take a Summer Vacation

Can a Hot but Smaller Labor Market Keep Making Gains in Participation?

Event Recap: Lessons for Strengthening Social Insurance

Policies to Protect Workers and Families: Lessons for Strengthening Social Insurance

Robert Greenstein looks back at the last four decades of social programs to assess factors affecting social programs' political strength, as well as their poverty-reducing impacts, their take-up rates, and issues related to program access.

Event Recap: Tackling International Tax

Tackling International Tax

Significant proposed changes to tax policy would bring the US system more in line with the new consensus on international corporate tax policy. These six economic facts present background on motivations and goals for many of the features of the international framework.

Inflation-Related Updates to Recession Remedies

Recession Remedies: Lessons Learned from the US Economic Policy Response to COVID-19

In the United States, COVID-19 triggered a sharp economic downturn. Yet, the ensuing economic recovery was faster and stronger than nearly any forecaster anticipated due in part to the swift, aggressive, and creative fiscal and monetary policy response in the U.S. While the next recession most likely won’t be triggered…

Examines the use and value of nontraditional data sources, such as private payroll service providers and restaurant reservation services.

Examines the role of monetary policy in keeping interest rates low in the wake of a surge in federal borrowing to assess whether a similar increase in borrowing could be repeated in future recessions.

Examines the impact of the pandemic and related policy responses on children.

Looks at the nearly $1 trillion that the federal government provided to state and local governments.

Part I: Reviews the aid offered those among the roughly 50 million homeowners with mortgages who struggled to make payments because of the pandemic. Part II: Reviews the aid offered those among the roughly 44 million renters who struggled to make payments.

Surveys the newly created federal subsidies and loans provided to businesses in the first year of the pandemic and also examine the additional lending and corporate bond purchases by the Federal Reserve.

Examines the more than $800 billion in cash that was distributed to all but the highest-income households in the three rounds of Economic Impact Payments (EIPs).

Reviews the substantial expansion of UI—supplementing state-provided benefits, expanding eligibility to those not traditionally eligible, and extending the duration of benefits.

Reviews the macroeconomic impact of the breadth of the economic policy responses that produced a recovery that, while stronger than generally anticipated and stronger than those of other advanced economies, has also been accompanied by an unwelcome increase in inflation.

Taking Stock of the COVID-19 Recovery With Mary Daly and Peter Orszag

Tracking the Recovery From the COVID-19 Recession

A Hamilton Project analysis on how household balance sheets have evolved since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic finds that, in aggregate, households’ financial positions in 2022 are remarkedly improved relative to 2019.

Examining the Economic Status of Same-Gender Relationship Households

The Hamilton Project: 2021 in Figures

Labor market exits and entrances are elevated: who is coming back?

What Does Current Inflation Tell Us About the Future?

[1527] [economic_security_poverty] Economic Security & Poverty

Has COVID disrupted the postsecondary pipeline?