To conclude the year, Veronica Clevenstine, Wendy Edelberg, Moriah Macklin, Beatriz Rivera, Winnie Yee present a month-by-month journey in figure through The Hamilton Project's research, analysis, and policy proposals.
In this analysis Lauren Bauer and Wendy Edelberg identify when and which people are returning to labor market and explore how changing participation rates by different groups is contributing to the labor market recovery.
Lauren Bauer, Veronica Clevenstine, Wendy Edelberg, Elisabeth Raczek, and Winnie Yee explore how the decision whether to enroll in school or work during the pandemic have played out through the 2020-21 academic school year and the summer of 2021.
Stephanie Aaronson, Mitchell Barnes, and Wendy Edelberg discuss the benefits and potential limitations of promoting a tight labor market to eliminate racial and ethnic disparities in unemployment rates.
In a new blog, Ryan Nunn outlines reforms to occupational licensing and non-compete contracts that would boost labor market competition and benefit workers.
In a new blog, Lauren Bauer provides new evidence that mothers — particularly mothers of children under five and unmarried mothers — are being left behind in the economic recovery from COVID-19.
In this analysis, we examine the impacts of the pandemic recession across different dimensions, including employment, labor force participation, and the need to switch industries. This analysis provides texture and evidence to the emerging understanding that women and people of color, working in the service industry, have been the most negatively affected.
Ten Senate Republicans recently proposed a $618-billion COVID relief package. In this piece, we provide an analysis of that package and update our analysis of the Biden Administration’s $1.9 trillion fiscal package, using the current-law GDP projections that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released on Monday.
In this piece, Wendy Edelberg and Louise Sheiner project the effect of the Biden package on GDP. They project that if the Biden package were enacted, GDP would reach the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) pre-pandemic GDP projection after the third quarter of 2021, exceeding it by 1 percent in the fourth quarter. In the middle of 2022, GDP would show a temporary and shallow decline and then grow at an annual rate of about 1.5 percent, coming close to the path projected just before the pandemic.
In this analysis, Kristen Broady, Eliana Buckner, Jennifer Umanzor, and Sarah Wheaton find that while nearly every school in our sample offered in-person experiences in March, only about 30 percent were planning to maintain that in-person experience by September. Public schools and community colleges were particularly likely to go online, which disproportionately impacted students of color as well as low-income students.
In this analysis, Wendy Edelberg and Stephanie Lu examine the benefits of social insurance programs such as unemployment insurance, rental assistance, and subsidized health insurance. They recommend improving automatic stabilizers so that ad hoc policymaking in the face of an economic downturn becomes the exception, rather than the rule.
This analysis shows the effects on economic activity, as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), of illustrative versions of several policies. Specifically, researchers examine five policies: a second round of checks to households, a resumption of enhanced unemployment insurance benefits, aid to state and local governments, support for small businesses, and other forms of fiscal support.
In this analysis, we present two data interactives that let you explore how trends in teen labor force participation and school enrollment during the academic year and the summer have changed in the past 20 years (2000 to 2020) and across the United States in 2020, by gender and race.
As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, millions of essential workers are confronting new public health hazards in their workplace. Yet because of mass de-unionization over the past 40 years, most of these workers lack union representation. In this blog, Jimmy O'Donnell builds upon prior Hamilton Project work, shows how workplace conditions have changed for workers, and discusses the potential role for private-sector labor unions.
In this blog post, researchers show that there is room for Congress to improve the triggers under current law that turn on and maintain the Unemployment Insurance Extended Benefits program to support the long-term unemployed when the labor market is weak. They also show that there is room for states to take full advantage of provisions under current law by opting into more generous benefit extensions.
Since the March Employment Situation, the number of respondents reporting as "employed but absent from work due to other reasons" has risen as a share of the labor force. In this blog, Lauren Bauer, Wendy Edelberg, Jimmy O'Donnell, and Jay Shambaugh explore the nature and magnitude of this phenomenon and analyze who these "potentially misclassified" respondents are.
The rapid contraction of the economy this spring has shattered records for the speed of onset of a recession. One of the most economically important pieces of the nearly $3 trillion policy response has been the rapid expansion of unemployment insurance (UI). Our preliminary calculations suggest that UI offset a small portion of personal income loss in March 2020, but roughly half of lost wages and salaries in April.
This blog post explores two important labor market disadvantages observed for nontraditional workers: more volatile hours and less health insurance coverage.
The U.S. unemployment insurance (UI) system replaces some of the earnings of workers who have lost their jobs, helping them to stay afloat during tough economic times. But the UI system can also support workers and employers as they reduce, rather than eliminate, employees’ work hours.
Leveraging monthly labor market data, Emily Moss, Ryan Nunn, and Jay Shambaugh analyze three components of income—wages, hours worked, and employment—to estimate household income growth.
In this analysis, we examine how prime-age working (ages 25–54) men and women allocate their time, overall and by parental status. This analysis shows that for some, especially mothers, caregiving and other household obligations reduce the amount of time that can be spent looking for work and working.
There is no single explanation for the vulnerability of American workers today, but one crucial trend is the erosion of private-sector union membership. The Hamilton Project takes a closer look at the decline in union coverage, and identifies opportunities to reinforce existing rules or enhance the framework governing collective bargaining.
In the latest analysis, The Hamilton Project explores how the nation’s underemployment rate reveals very different labor market outcomes for black, Hispanic, and white workers in the U.S.
The latest analysis from The Hamilton Project explores how teenagers (16–19-year-olds) have shifted away from working or seeking work and the impact this change has on the broader labor force participation rate.
Despite a steadily improving U.S. labor market in recent years, unemployed workers today have more trouble finding a job than they did at the peak of the last business cycle in 2006, and have a much lower job-finding rate than in 2000. In the latest analysis, The Hamilton Project compares the rates of finding a job pre-, mid- and post-recession, as well as shifts in unemployment over the years.
How and why does occupational licensing exist? As policymakers consider reforms, Hamilton Project Policy Director Ryan Nunn and Gabriel Scheffler of Penn Law School and Yale Law School explore the explanations of “public interest” and “public choice.”
Despite a growing aging population in the U.S. in recent decades, labor force participation among older Americans continues to rise. A new Hamilton Project analysis examines the significance of this trend on the economy’s potential future growth.
Each March, we celebrate Women’s History Month. The Hamilton Project takes this opportune moment to reflect on women’s changing labor market fortunes and its impact on the U.S. economy.
The modern distribution of black Americans closely relates to the historical patterns of the black population. Jay Shambaugh, Ryan Nunn and Stacy A. Anderson reflect on how U.S. policies have shaped where people live and the opportunities people have in those communities.
Despite the focus on monthly job reports and unemployment rates, which offer important signals about the state of the economy, it is growth in real household income that is the most relevant statistic for most families in the United States.
Overly restrictive regulations can prevent many workers from finding the employment that best fits their talents and training. In this op-ed, Hamilton Project Policy Director Ryan Nunn outlines policy actions to improve licensing and ultimately make labor markets more effective and competitive.
Following the announcement of a plan to reform SNAP rules, Fellow Lauren Bauer offers analysis suggesting that strict enforcement of work requirements will sanction not only those who are able to work but choose not to—but also those who are unable to work, unable to find work or prove that they have met the requirement.
In their new analysis, Jay Shambaugh, Ryan Nunn, and Jana Parsons explore the national trend of declining worker mobility and migration, particularly the lack of low-income workers and families moving to higher performing places.
As federal and state policymakers continue to seek solutions to bring more Americans into the workforce, such as imposing and expanding work requirements on millions of safety net participants, Lauren Bauer and Jay Shambaugh explore the question: just how many more safety net beneficiaries can reasonably be expected to return to the workforce and secure consistent work?
Where people live in the United States is often a key determinant of their economic outcomes. This article explores the disparities that exist between counties, and considers place-based policies to support disadvantaged communities across the country.
How are real incomes rising even as real wages are flat? Ryan Nunn and Jay Shambaugh take a closer look at outcomes over the past few years, and factors that play a role in determining the household income growth rate.
Despite economic gains and recent increases, the share of Americans ages 25-54 participating in the labor force is still below pre-Great Recession level. The Hamilton Project provides an update of the employment rate gap by race/ethnicity and level of education.
In this op-ed, Hamilton Project Policy Director Ryan Nunn discusses occupational licensing reform and its potential impact on the U.S. health care system. Nunn outlines several types of considerations to achieve best practices in the health care sector.
Over the last three years, amid a strengthening labor market, the prime-age (25- to 54-year-old) labor force participation rate has increased. This blog post explores the forces driving this trend and the implications of this increase on the long-term trend in labor force participation.
A family getting by on $117,400 in San Francisco can now be considered 'low income', according to government figures. Jay Shambaugh and Ryan Nunn explain this phenomenon by breaking down the variation in earnings and cost of living across the U.S.
An estimated 15.5 million U.S. workers have alternative arrangements for their primary employment—this includes independent contractors, on-call workers, temporary help agency workers, and workers provided by contract firms. Alternative work arrangements may on the one hand represent flexibility of the U.S. labor market; on the other hand, such arrangements may indicate insufficient labor demand. These new arrangements likely require different labor market institutions to protect workers as well as new data to properly understand the state of the labor market.
Matt Marx of Boston University and Ryan Nunn of the Hamilton Project describe the conditions under which non-competes are used and explain how current practices limit entrepreneurship, information flow, and worker mobility
Despite progress in recent years, women still face pay disparities in the labor market. In this blog, Hamilton Project Director Jay Shambaugh and Policy Director Ryan Nunn analyze the gender gap and present options for policies to reduce it.
In this op-ed, Shambaugh, Nunn, and Portman discuss the barriers that women face in the labor market, arguing that removing these barriers could improve women's lavor force participation, the quality of their labor market opportunities, both of which would contribute to economic growth.
In this article, Hamilton Project Director Jay Shambaugh and Policy Director Ryan Nunn address why wages aren't growing in the United States.
In this op-ed, Hamilton Project Director Jay Shambaugh discusses the closing of the jobs gap, the many people in the United States who are still out of work, and what policies can be implemented to help solve these problems.
In this op-ed, Hamilton Project Director Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach and THP author Jesse Rothstein discuss a recent study examining the effect of raising the minimum wage to $13 per hour in Seattle, Washington. The authors question the conclusions drawn from this study, arguing that it is still too soon to say what the impact might be of raising the minimum wage to this level.
An oft-repeated observation is that government works best when it is closest to the people. But when local and state governments are unduly influenced by special interests, the people may benefit from the checks and balances of the federal government. The Federal Trade Commission furnishes a striking recent example, writes Ryan Nunn and Matthew Mitchell.
In this op-ed, Hamilton Project Policy Director Ryan Nunn discusses the growing employer abuse of non-compete clauses, which contributes to the supression of wage growth. To the extent that firms are successful in reducing worker bargaining power, Nunn notes, it may be the taxpayer who is called upon to make up the difference for low-wage workers.
In this blog post, we examine our economic analysis and interactive tool, "Putting Your Major to Work: Career Paths after College," exploring how college majors and occupations interact to produce a wide range of labor market outcomes. Using psychology as an illustrative example of choice of major, we trace possible career outcomes.
In this op-ed, Hamilton Project Policy Director Ryan Nunn explores the possibilities of long run licensing reform efforts, arguing that they may be most effective when they focus on reducing the difficulty of obtaining licenses and preventing inappropriate new licensure.
In this op-ed, Hamilton Project Policy Director Ryan Nunn discusses how reforming non-competes could level the playing field for workers.
While forms of nontraditional and contingent work relationships such as subcontracted, temporary, part-time, and seasonal work are not new, the emergence of the online gig economy has increased policy interest in the issue of contingent work arrangements. To draw attention to this emerging issue, The Hamilton Project released a new framing paper on the economic opportunities and challenges of the online gig economy, and hosted a public forum featuring a new proposal by Seth Harris of Cornell University and Alan Krueger of Princeton University.
In July 2015 the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Economic Policy, the Council of Economic Advisers, and the U.S. Department of Labor issued an impressive and extremely well documented report entitled "Occupational Licensing: A Framework for Policymakers." Recent Hamilton Project author Morris Kleiner comments on the positives and shortcomings of the report, and draws comparisons with his Hamilton Project policy proposal released in March.
Scholars and public commentators have recently debated the impact of education on earnings and earnings inequality. Some have argued that improving education is not the sole solution to inequality. Brad Hershbein, Melissa Kearney and Lawrence H. Summers clarify the different elements of the public debate and respond to a contending essay from the Washington Center for Equitable Growth.
Nearly 30 percent of workers in the U.S. need a license to perform their job. It is important to realize that occupational licenses are not mere state-sponsored certificates to signal that workers have completed some level of training; occupational licensing laws forbid people from practicing in their occupation without meeting state requirements.
In previously released work, The Hamilton Project has emphasized that individuals who obtain college-level education have notably higher earnings than those with lower levels of education. Accordingly, The Hamilton Project has commissioned a series of papers in recent years describing opportunities to strengthen community college programs and vocational training, presented in this blog post as an overview.
Recent Hamilton Project author Harry Holzer provides commentary on two new initiatives by President Obama for expanding college opportunities and training for low- and middle-income students.
The value of higher education is widely reported. But what can graduates expect to earn given their choice of major & degree? THP’s new economic analysis & interactive explore career earnings by college major.
In a new blog post, The Hamilton Project provides highlights from a recent forum on the state of the U.S. job market. Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Jason Furman introduced a new report on labor force trends and was joined by former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin and Princeton University Professor Alan Blinder for a roundtable discussion.
Hamilton Project Author Harry Holzer comments on recent legislation of the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act.
Each month, The Hamilton Project examines the “jobs gap,” which is the number of jobs that the U.S. economy needs to create in order to return to pre-recession employment levels while absorbing the people who enter the labor force each month. As of the end of May, our nation faces a gap of 7.0 million jobs.
THP explores the nation’s “jobs gap,” or the number of jobs needed to return to pre-recession employment levels. As of the end of March 2014, our nation faces a jobs gap of 7.4 million jobs. The pdated state-by-state numbers for February 2014 are also available.
Senate Budget Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray introduced legislation that would provide tax relief for working families by establishing a deduction for two-earner families and expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for childless individuals.The proposed legislation closely follows the secondary earner deduction outlined in a Hamilton Project paper by Melissa Kearney and Lesley Turner.
Senate Budget Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray introduced the "21st Century Worker Tax Cut Act" to establish a new deduction for married couples who are both employed and have young children, and to increase the earned income tax credit (EITC) for childless workers.The Act would implement the policies introduced by two Hamilton Project proposals designed to help “make work pay” by allowing low- and middle-income families keep more of what they earn.
As of the end of February 2014, our nation faces a jobs gap of 7.5 million jobs. This chart shows how the jobs gap has evolved since the start of the Great Recession in December 2007, and how long it will take to close under different assumptions for job growth. If the economy adds about 208,000 jobs per month, which was the average monthly rate for the best year of job creation in the 2000s, then it will take until September 2018 to close the jobs gap. Given a more optimistic rate of 321,000 jobs per month, which was the average monthly rate of the best year of job creation in the 1990s, the economy will reach pre-recession employment levels by September 2016.
As President Obama releases his proposal for expanding the earned income tax credit, he cites Hamilton Project expert John Karl Scholz's proposal on the expansion of the EITC for low-wage, childless workers.
As of the end of January 2014, our nation faces a jobs gap of 7.6 million jobs. The Hamilton Project updates our jobs gap calculator.
Wonkblog features two of THP Founder Robert Rubin's favorite graphs of the year, including The Hamilton Project's graph "Highest Educational Attainment of Family Head, by Income Relative to the Federal Poverty Level (FPL)."
In a recent blog post on Yahoo! Finance’s “The Exchange,” Rick Newman discussed the Hamilton Project’s latest employment analysis, “The Lasting Effects of the Great Recession: Six Million Missing Workers and A New Economic Normal.” Examining data from the current labor market, the analysis finds that there are about six million fewer workers in the labor force today than the Bureau of Labor Statistics had projected in 2009. Newman outlines factors contributing to this trend, and questions “whether a slow-growing economy with fewer jobs is the new normal.” To read the full piece, click here.
Today on “The Diane Rehm Show,” Hamilton Project Director Michael Greenstone discussed how the declining number of public-sector jobs is affecting the U.S. economy and American workers. During the show, Greenstone noted that the policy response after the Great Recession differed from those following previous recessions, and discussed how these choices are impacting all levels of government. To listen to the show, click here. In a recent Hamilton Project employment analysis, “Should The United States Have 2.2 Million More Jobs?”, the Project explores the trajectory of public-sector employment since the Great Recession. The findings show that if the policy response to this recession had been similar to the response after other recent recessions, the economy would have about 2.2 million more jobs today.
In a recent New York Times opinion piece, David Autor and David Dorn discuss recent attention on the effects of technological change on employment. They write that computerization has polarized employment, “with job growth concentrated in both the highest- and lowest-paid occupations, while jobs in the middle have declined” and suggest that the shift is not reducing the quantity of jobs, but “degrading the quality of jobs for a significant subset of workers.” In a 2010 Hamilton Project discussion paper, “The Polarization of Job Opportunities in the U.S. Labor Market: Implications for Employment and Earnings,” Autor analyzes the U.S. labor market over the past three decades and finds employment polarization on the rise as job opportunities decline in middle-skill occupations, resulting in a sharp increase in wage inequality.
In a recent New York Times“Economix” story on a new report that found incomes are down since the recovery began, Catherine Rampell discusses findings from a Hamilton Project employment analysis. In “The Long-term Effects of the Great Recession for America’s Youth,” the Project examined how the Great Recession has impacted different age groups. Rampell highlights findings from the new report on how young people and those nearing retirement have been hit harder than other age groups, and cites findings from the Project’s analysis that indicate the average person who graduated around 2010 would be expected to experience an earnings loss of about $70,000 over the following decade.
In this week’s Washington Post Magazine cover story on finding a job after college, Jim Tankersley cites findings from The Hamilton Project’s discussion paper, "Using Data to Improve the Performance of Workforce Training." In the paper, Louis Jacobson of New Horizons Economic Research and Robert LaLonde of the University of Chicago propose a competition to increase the return on workforce training investments by developing the data and measures necessary to provide the information prospective trainees need, by presenting the information in user-friendly “report cards,” by providing help for prospective trainees to use the information effectively, and by creating incentives for states to implement permanent information systems once they prove cost-effective. Tankersley cites the paper to support his suggestion that community college enrollees may save money and maximize their future earnings by “asking pointed questions very early about what degree or certificate you plan to pursue; how likely it is that you’ll complete that degree, given your academic record; and what sort of job prospects await grads in that field.”
This weekend, the Huffington Post highlighted The Hamilton Project’s recent employment analysis “Rising Student Debt Burdens: Factors Behind the Phenomenon.” In the analysis, The Hamilton Project examines possible explanations for the recent increases in student debt and default rates. Huffington Post highlights findings from the analysis that indicate students who complete even “some college” earn an average of $100,000 more over their lifetime than their peers with a high school diploma. To read the full piece, click here.
Today, the White House released a report on the economic benefits of immigration reform. The report outlines how a Senate bill (S. 744) would strengthen the economy and boost the G.D.P.; foster innovation and encourage job growth; increase productivity and protect workers; and lower the federal deficit and strengthen Social Security. The report quotes Madeline Zavodny, co-author of The Hamilton Project’s “Overhauling the Temporary Work Visa System” who said, “Targeted changes to immigration policy geared toward admitting more highly educated immigrants and more temporary workers for specific sectors of the economy would help generate the growth, economic opportunity, and new jobs that America needs.” Her Hamilton Project proposal co-authored by Pia Orrenius and Giovanni Peri, presents a strategy to change the U.S. employment-based immigration system to make the system more efficient, increase the economic benefits of immigration and raise revenues by using market-based auctions to allocate visas. To read the full proposal, click here.
In a recent op-ed in the Dallas Morning News, Jeffrey Selingo cites data from The Hamilton Project employment analysis, “Where is the Best Place to Invest $102,000 — In Stocks, Bonds, or a College Degree?” In the analysis, The Project compares the value of a college degree to other investment options and finds higher education provides, by far, the greatest rate of return. Selingo highlights the finding that the “annual return on investment of a bachelor’s degree is 15 percent, compared with 6 percent for stocks and 1 percent for housing.” To read the full piece, click here.
Today in Quartz, Lauren Alix Brown cited The Hamilton Project’s jobs gap calculator in an article on a new study that found Americans entering the labor force have less education than those retiring from it. In the article, Brown discusses data from the calculator showing that ifthe economy adds about 208,000 jobs per month, which was the average monthly rate for the best year of job creation in the 2000s, then it will take until April 2020 to close the jobs gap. To read the full piece, click here.
This week, Business Insider’s Laura Brothers and Wonkblog’s Dylan Matthews discussed The Hamilton Project’s latest employment analysis, “Is Starting College and Not Finishing Really That Bad?” In the analysis, the Project examines whether starting college is worth it for students who fail to complete a degree. The findings show that students who complete “some college” earn about $100,000 more throughout their lifetime than their peers with only a high school education. “Taking into account the cost of going to college for a certain period (1.83 years on average, for these students), the return on investment is significantly lower than that for bachelor’s degrees or professional degrees (a category which includes medical, law and dental degrees, but not PhDs or master’s degrees), but still higher than stocks, bonds, or any other conventional investment,” Matthews notes. To read the full Wonkblog story, click here. To read the full Business Insider story, click here.
In a recent article, The Associated Press’ Justin Pope discusses The Hamilton Project’s latest employment analysis, “Is Starting College and Not Finishing Really That Bad?” In the analysis, the Project examines whether starting college is worth it for students who fail to complete a degree. The findings show that students who complete “some college” earn about $100,000 more throughout their lifetime than their peers with only a high school education, and the rate of return to their investment exceeds the historical return on practically any conventional investment, including stocks, bonds, and real estate. Pope quotes Hamilton Project Policy Director Adam Looney who discussing the analysis said, “It is vastly better to get a college degree… But I think the evidence says that fears of dropping out, that there are big downside risks to trying it and not finishing it, I think those are overblown.” To read the full piece, click here.
In his latest column for Bloomberg View, Advisory Council member Peter Orszag discusses the link between the unemployment rate and life expectancy. He highlights estimates that indicate for each percentage-point the unemployment rate increases, the mortality rate falls by 0.3 percentage point. He writes that “the evidence suggests that a combination of forces contribute to the increase in life expectancy during times of higher unemployment: Motor vehicle deaths decline, people tend to avoid unhealthy behavior, air pollution is diminished, and nursing home staffing improves.” To read the full piece, click here.
In a recent story for The Atlantic on why there are so few marriages where women earn more money than their husbands, Derek Thompson discusses data from the Hamilton Project’s “The Marriage Gap: The Impact of Economic and Technological Change on Marriage Rates.” In the employment analysis, The Hamilton Project examines the decline the marriages over the last 50 years, highlighting the correlation between income level and likelihood of marrying. Thompson discusses a chart from the employment analysis that shows “the bottom half of female earners have seen their marriage rates decline by 25 percentage points since 1970” and a chart that shows the correlation between declining marriage rates and declining male earnings. To read the full piece, click here.
In a recent blog post for the Dallas Morning News’ “Biz Beat Blog”, Sheryl Jean highlights The Hamilton Project’s recent employment analysis, “Should the United States Have 2.2 Million More Jobs?” THP’s analysis explores government employment since the Great Recession and finds that, had the policy response been similar to that after other recent recessions, the economy would have about 2.2 million more jobs today. Jean discusses data from the Project’s jobs gap calculator, and highlights data on Texas’ jobs gap from THP’s state-by-state jobs gap chart. To read the full post, click here.
In a recent blog post for The Atlantic, Derek Thompson highlights a chart from The Hamilton Project employment analysis “The Marriage Gap: The Impact of Economic and Technological Change on Marriage Rates.” He discusses findings from the analysis that show marriage rates are declining for every income level except the top five percent. To read the full blog post, click here.
In a recent article in the Huffington Post, Mark Gongloff discusses findings from The Hamilton Project’s latest employment analysis, “Should the United States Have 2.2 Million More Jobs?” In the analysis, the Project explores the trajectory of public-sector employment since the Great Recession. The findings show that if the policy response to this recession had been similar to the response after other recent recessions, the economy would have about 2.2 million more jobs today. To read the full piece, click here.
Today in The Atlantic, Derek Thompson discusses findings from The Hamilton Project’s latest employment analysis, “Should the United States Have 2.2 Million More Jobs?” In the analysis, the Project explores the trajectory of public-sector employment since the Great Recession. The findings show that if the policy response to this recession had been similar to the response after other recent recessions, the economy would have about 2.2 million more jobs today. In his blog post, Thompson writes “it's intuitive that expansionary public spending (including on people) following a private sector meltdown are useful to help the economy catch up to trend-line growth. But rather than Washington leading the still-weak economy, the cart has led the horse, with the private sector adding roughly 2.2 million jobs over the past year while state, local, and federal governments have shed more than 90,000 jobs.” To read the full piece, click here.
In a recent blog post in Bloomberg Businessweek’s “Small Change,” Charles Kenny discusses income inequality in the United States. He highlights data from a Hamilton paperin the Milken Institute Review focused on trends in earnings and job prospects in America during recent decades. Kenny notes a finding from the paper that median wages of average American men has fallen by $13,000 since 1969. To read the full piece, click here.
In a recent blog post in The Guardian, Helaine Olen highlights data from a Hamilton Project employment analysis “Unemployment and Earnings Losses: The Long-Term Impacts of The Great Recession on American Workers.” Olen discusses findings from the analysis on the earnings of Americans who lost their full-time jobs for economic reasons between October 2008 and April 2009 during the two years after their job loss. She notes that even those who found a new job earned an average of 17% less than they did in their previous positions. To read the full piece, click here.
In a recent article on gay marriage, The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson cites data on the wages of low-income men from The Hamilton Project's “The Marriage Gap: The Impact of Economic and Technological Change on Marriage Rates” . Thompson highlights a chart from THP that shows the change in earnings and the change in the share of men married by earnings percentile and notes that low-income men had the largest decline in marriage rates since the 1970s. To read the full piece, click here.
Today in the Washington Post’s “Wonkblog,” Dylan Matthews highlights two Hamilton Project proposals in a blog post on five ways to reform the disability insurance system. Matthews mentions “Supporting Work: A Proposal for Modernizing the U.S. Disability Insurance System,” in which David Autor and Mark Duggan discuss how the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program has failed to support the ongoing employment and economic self-sufficiency of workers with disabilities, leading to declining employment of Americans with disabilitiesand a rapid growth in program expenditures. Autor and Duggan offer a blueprint for refocusing the SSDI program toward assisting individuals with disabilities to remain employed. Matthews also highlights “An Evidence-Based Path to Disability Insurance Reform,” in which Jeffrey Liebman and Jack Smalligan propose a path to improve our disability insurance systemthrough demonstration projects and administrative changesthat could potentially increase employment and economic engagement among workers with disabilities--and provide more rapid and reliable resolution of disability insurance claims for those who cannot work. To read the full piece, click here.
The latest episode of This American Life, “Trends with Benefits,” and a series of stories this week on NPR’s “All Things Considered” focus on the growing number of Americans receiving federal disability payments and what the increase says about the U.S. economy. The programs feature commentary from David Autor and Mark Duggan who co-authored The Hamilton Project paper, “Supporting Work: A Proposal for Modernizing the U.S. Disability Insurance System.” The paper discusses how the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program has failed to support the ongoing employment and economic self-sufficiency of workers with disabilities, leading to rapid growth in program expenditures and declining employment of Americans with disabilities. Autor and Duggan’s proposal offers a blueprint for reversing this needless employment decline and stemming the dramatic growth of the SSDI program. To read the full proposal, click here.
Last night on MSNBC’s “The Last Word,” Ezra Klein highlighted his top five proposals from The Hamilton Project’s “15 Ways to Rethink the Federal Budget.” Klein featured “The Many Benefits of a Carbon Tax,” by Adele Morris; “Transitioning to Bundled Payments in Medicare,” by Michael Chernew and Dana Goldman; “Limiting Individual Income Tax Expenditures,” by Diane Lim, “Funding Transportation Infrastructure with User Fees ,” by Tyler Duvall and Jack Basso; and “Making Defense Affordable,” by Cindy Williams. For more information on all fifteen policy proposals, or to download all the proposals in a single volume, either in PDF format or as a free ebook, click here. For the video clip, click here.
In a blog post on the effects of immigration on American workers in the New York Times’ “Economix,” Catherine Rampell discusses findings in The Hamilton Project’s recent piece, “The Economics of Immigration” that indicate American-born workers could see wages increase by between 0.1% and 0.6% on average with a boost in immigrants. She also notes that The Project found immigrants generally complement native-born workers, as low-skill immigrants often fill jobs that U.S.-born workers do not want and high-skill immigrants fill vacancies for which there are not enough trained native-born candidates. To read the full piece, click here. Additional information on the economic impacts of immigration on the U.S. economy can be found in another Hamilton Project paper, “Ten Economic Facts about Immigration.”
Today on MSNBC’s “The Daily Rundown,” Chuck Todd highlights Hamilton Project data in a segment on President Obama’s first term. Todd cites data from a recent Hamilton Project employment analysis, “A Record Decline in Government Jobs: Implications for the Economy and America’s Workforce,” on public-sector employment trends, in which The Project found nearly 212,000 teaching jobs were cut between 2009 and 2011. Watch the video clip here.
In the wake of the school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut, Daily Kos’ Jon Perr proposes adding another 100,000 members to the police force to make communities more secure and to help the economy. Perr cites data from a recent Hamilton Project employment analysis, “A Record Decline in Government Jobs: Implications for the Economy and America’s Workforce,” on public-sector employment trends. Parr highlights THP data on declining numbers of police department employees and emergency responders between 2011 and 2009. Read the full piece here.
Advisory Council member Laura D’Andrea Tyson cites a recent Hamilton Project piece in a recent blog post about the unemployment rate in the New York Times’ “Economix.” Tyson argues against the idea that the unemployment rate remains high because of a gap between the skill requirements of vacant jobs and those skilled possessed by unemployed Americans. Instead, she writes that the economic evidence suggests the high unemployment rate is due to weak demand. Read the full piece here.
The Washington Post’s Wonkblog highlights work from The Hamilton Project and selections by several Advisory Council members in its feature titled, “2012: The Year in Graphs.” The piece quotes Hamilton Project Director Michael Greenstone and highlights two graphs from The Project on costs associated with various sources of electricity generation and the change in family earnings of children. Wonkblog also quotes Advisory Council members Robert Greenstein, Peter Orszag and Alice Rivlin who weigh in on charts and graphs they felt best represented the year. To read the full piece, click here.
In a Reuters opinion piece on economic inequality, Don Peck highlights data from a paper by Hamilton Project Director Michael Greenstone and Policy Director Adam Looney, “Trends: Reduced Earnings for Men in America: Full Paper,” on some of the workforce challenges facing American men. Peck notes data that show earnings for men with only high school diplomas have fallen 25%, adjusted for inflation, since 1969. Read the full piece here.
Today in the Washington Post’s “PostPartisan,” Robert Samuelson highlights a Hamilton Project analysis, “How Long Will It Take to Get to 6.5 Percent Unemployment,” which was released after the Fed’s recent announcement that interest rates will remain at historic lows until the unemployment rate falls below 6.5 percent. Samuelson discusses THP’s estimates of how many jobs would need to be created to lower the unemployment rate from 7.7 percent in November, to 6.5 percent.
Ideas Lab highlights The Hamilton Project’s jobs gap calculator, a interactive feature that allows you to calculate how long it will take to close the “jobs gap” under different scenarios of growth.The blog post also cites The Project’s state-by-state jobs gap chart, which allows users to see the number of jobs each state would have to add in order to bring its employment-to-population ratio to its pre-recession level. To read the full piece, click here.
In today’s Daily Ticker, Hamilton Project Policy Director Adam Looney discusses the impact of an unemployment insurance (UI) benefit extension on employment incentives, noting that extended benefits added only between 0.1 and 0.5 percentage point to the unemployment rate in 2011. Washington Post's Brad Plumer in an article today on jobless benefits highlighted a new Hamilton Project paper, "The Impact of Fiscal Cliff Negotiations on American Jobs," in which Looney and Hamilton Project Director Michael Greenstone discuss the benefits of UI in more detail.
In National Journal, Jonathan Rauch cites data from The Hamilton Project in an article on the effects of the economy on middle class Americans, particularly less-skilled men. Rauch writes that overall economic growth over the last few decades has not translated into higher wages for large segments of the population, which has led many Americans to leave the workforce. He quotes THP Policy Director Adam Looney as saying the departure of many of these less-skilled workers from the workforce will “place a huge strain on the social safety net in the coming decades." Rauch argues that both economic and cultural forces have impacted less-skilled workers’ ability to earn livable wages, and suggests that remedies to both areas should be pursued to reverse the trend. He cites THP data on the earnings of median male workers, the number of men participating in the workforce by education level, and the earnings and marital rates of men. Read the full piece here.
Negotiations on a compromise to avoid the fiscal cliff are underway, and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are also discussing whether or not to extend unemployment insurance for 12 million unemployed Americans before the benefits expire at year-end. On December 5, Hamilton Project Policy Director Adam Looney took your questions on extending unemployment insurance in a live web chat moderated by Vivyan Tran at POLITICO. To read a full transcript of the chat, click here.
In Washington Post’s “Wonkblog,” Dylan Matthews discusses private forecaster ADP’s latest report on job growth and unemployment changes, which estimates that the economy gained 118,000 jobs last month. Matthews cites data from The Hamilton Project’s jobs gap calculator—an interactive feature that allows you to calculate how long it will take to close the “jobs gap” under different scenarios of growth—which shows that at a rate of 118,000 jobs per month, the U.S. will not be back at pre-recession employment levels until after 2025. Read the full piece here.
Among the many spending cuts and tax increases legislated to take effect at the turn of the year, few policies have as direct an effect on those most affected by the recession than the expiration of extended unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. During the first week of January, roughly two million individuals will lose extended benefits with the expiration of legislation that temporarily increased the duration individuals can claim benefits. As lawmakers consider whether to extend these benefits, The Hamilton Project’s Michael Greenstone and Adam Looney explore the evidence on unemployment insurance. They find that while these benefits make up only $30 billion of the roughly $500 billion ‘fiscal cliff,’ they have a disproportionate effect on the lives of the unemployed and their families, as well as on the aggregate economy. To read the full piece, click here. Tomorrow, Hamilton Project Policy Director Adam Looney will answer questions about the costs and benefits of extending UI benefits during a live webchat moderated by POLITICO’s Vivyan Tran. For more information or to register for the webchat, click here.
In a Nextgov blog post, Dana Grinshpan describes a shortage of skilled cybersecurity professionals to fill positions aimed at combating security breaches in federal IT systems. She notes that one challenge to recruiting skilled workers for these vacancies is that the percentage of women who go into science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields continues to decline despite the increased demand for workers in these fields. The Hamilton Project’s “A Dozen Economic Facts About Innovation,” highlights this disparity and notes that American women are less likely to pursue advanced degrees and employment in STEM fields than men. Read the full piece here.
In a Wall Street Journal article on President Obama’s “economic to-do list,” David Wessel cites data from the Hamilton Project on trends in annual wages for American workers. The Project’s data suggest that wages of American male workers began stagnating before the Great Recession and women are beginning to face some of the same issues. In the New York Times’ Economix Hamilton Project Director Michael Greenstone and Adam Looney previously discussed these trends. Read the full Economix piece here.
Reuters in an article on selecting a major highlights data from The Hamilton Project paper, “Where is the Best Place to Invest $102,000 — In Stocks, Bonds, or a College Degree?” which finds that investing in college has a higher return than investments in stocks and bonds. The Project compares the economic benefits of a college degree to its costs and finds the benefits of a four-year college degree on average are more than double the average return to stock market investments since 1950 and more than five times the returns to corporate bonds, gold, long-term government bonds, or home ownership. Read the full piece here.
In an Education Week commentary, Hamilton Project Director Michael Greenstone and Policy Director Adam Looney discuss The Project’s “A Dozen Economic Facts About K-12 Education.” Greenstone and Looney note some of the long-term effects of education on Americans’ wellbeing and suggest that improvements to the K-12 education system would benefit both individuals and society. Read the full piece here.
The stagnation of wages in recent years has many causes, but reflects a failure to invest enough in the skills and productivity of the American workforce, Hamilton Project Director Michael Greenstone and Policy Director Adam Looney write in a piece published in the New York Times' Economix.
Derek Thompson in The Atlantic and Dylan Matthews in Washington Post’s Wonkblog highlighted The Hamilton Project’s analysis of the current employment situation, which found that although college costs are rising, the increase in earnings that one receives from a college degree are growing even faster.
In the New York Times’ Economix, Advisory Council member Laura D'Andrea Tyson discusses disparities in educational achievement among children from different income groups and highlights Hamilton Project data on the correlation between earnings and marriage rates from “A Dozen Economic Facts about Tax Reform.” To read the full piece, click here.
In the New York Times' The Conscience of a Liberal, Paul Krugman highlights a graph from “A Dozen Economic Facts about Tax Reform" to illustrate that the vast majority of Americans pay income taxes at some point during their lifetime. Read the full piece here.
Is it enough to find a job, or should we be more focused on the quality of that job? There may be a range of perspectives on the best way to move our economy forward, but one element essential to any answer is education. The Hamilton Project examines the effects of education on income level and shows more education opens the gateway to better, higher-paying jobs.
In a New York Times column responding to Friday’s jobs report, David Brooks cites data from a Hamilton Project report that shows yearly earnings for median prime-age males fell 28% in the last four decades. Read the full piece here.
Dylan Matthews of the Washington Post’s Wonkblog cites a Hamilton Project paper in response to a recent Newsweek article that argues that college is no longer a good investment. Matthews uses Hamilton Project findings to illustrate return on investment of a college degree compared with returns from alternative investments such as gold or housing. Read the full piece here.
The Village Voice cites Hamilton Project showing that the rate of return of a college degree is nearly double the average return to stock market investments since 1950, and more than five times the returns to corporate bonds, gold, long-term government bonds, or home ownership.
Wonkblog cites Hamilton Project data showing that the wages of man have declined since 1969.
The Atlantic cites Hamilton Project data showing that earnings of single-parent families have dropped by twenty percent between 2007 and 2010.
In the Financial Times, Advisory Council member Lawrence H. Summers focuses on growing income inequality in the United States and puts forward several ideas for promoting greater equality of opportunity.
In Financial Times, Advisory Council member Roger C. Altman traces the weak U.S. economy back to the 20008 credit market collapse, and suggests the next step to move the economy forward.
The Atlantic cites a Hamilton Project graph showing the changes in mining, oil and gas employment between 2007-2011.
The National Journal quotes Hamilton Project Director Michael Greenstone on what makes workforce training programs successful.
Midwest Producer covers The Hamilton Project’s recent immigration forum, which focused on the challenges and opportunities for immigration reform in today’s economic and political environment.
New American Media highlights a new Hamilton Project paper by Giovanni Peri of UC Davis proposing market-based reforms to America's immigration system.
Yesterday, The Hamilton Project hosted a policy forum focused on the challenges and opportunities for immigration reform in today’s economic and political environment.
A report released on Saturday at the convention of the American Association of Community Colleges details the problems plaguing our nation’s community colleges, including too few students completing their degrees, too many students entering remedial programs, and too few students enrolling in programs leading to available jobs. The
Bloomberg’s Businessweek cites a study by Hamilton Project Director and MIT Professor Michael Greenstone, Rick Hornbeck, and Enrico Moretti that showed when a manufacturing plant chooses to invest in a new country, it increases the productivity of other firms in the area.
The Center for Economic and Policy Research’s blog references Hamilton Project research by Michael Greenstone and Adam Looney on the stagnation of earnings in America over the last four decades.
The Dayton Daily News cites Hamilton Project research showing that workers who lost their jobs during the Great Recession were likely to experience a significant earnings loss after finding new employment.
Time Magazine cites Hamilton Project research showing that marriage rates have risen for the top ten percent of female earners, while rates have declined for women with lower earnings.
Both the National Journal and The Diane Rehm Show of National Public Radio focused today on declining marriage rates in the United States, highlighting the correlation between income levels and likelihood of marriage.
Part of yesterday’s White House announcement on new training proposals included a wage insurance provision for workers age 50 or older who obtain new, full-time employment at wages of less than $50,000. The Hamilton Project previously released two discussion papers dealing with wage insurance that can help inform this discussion.
The President’s newly announced Universal Displaced Worker Program draws directly from a Hamilton Project discussion paper, “Policies to Reduce High-Tenured Displaced Workers’ Earnings Losses Through Retraining,” by Louis Jacobson, Robert LaLonde and Danielle Sullivan.
CNN Money covers The Hamilton Project’s jobs gap, which shows how long it will take to return to pre-recession employment levels.
The Globe and Mail covers The Hamilton Project’s ‘jobs gap,’ which highlights the number of jobs the U.S. economy needs to create to return to pre-recession employment levels while also absorbing the 125,000 people who enter the labor force each month.
President Obama’s budget includes proposals to train our nation’s workers similar to plans put forward by The Hamilton Project late last year.
In her Economix posting for The New York Times, Advisory Council member Laura D’Andrea Tyson discusses why she believes a strong manufacturing sector is important for the United States.
WAMU’s DCentric blog pulls five facts about the marriage gap from The Hamilton Project’s recent analysis on the correlations between income and marriage.
In The New York Times’ Economix blog, Catherine Rampell highlights new Hamilton Project analysis showing the link between technology gains, globalization and marriage rates.
CNN cites Hamilton Project research showing the 53 percent of Florida’s unemployed have been out of work for more than six months.
Hamilton Project Policy Director Adam Looney is quoted in the Dayton Daily News on how spending on job training remains flat.
Fareed Zakaria cites The Hamilton Project's jobs gap, which shows the number of jobs that the U.S. economy needs to create to return to pre-recession employment levels while absorbing the 125,000 people entering the labor force each month.
The Minneapolis Star Tribune cites Hamilton Project research showing the rate of a return for a college education.
Advisory Council member Laura D'Andrea Tyson discusses whether or not the economic recovery will continue at the current pace.
The New York Times’ Economix blog Catherine Rampell cites Hamilton Project research showing that the typical male college graduate earned about 12 percent less in 2009 than his counterpart did in 1969.
Ezra Klein discusses The Hamilton Project's analysis of the jobs gap, and the impact of the growth of the labor force on the length of the economic recovery.
In The Washington Post’s Wonkblog, Ezra Klein uses a Hamilton Project chart to illustrate his point that in the aggregate immigration increases economic growth.
The Wall Street Journal covers the growing number of unemployed utilizing Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) to get by without a job.
In an overview of economists’ favorite charts of 2011, the Washington Post highlight’s The Hamilton Project’s “job gap.”
Today at 12:30 p.m., Hamilton Project Policy Director Adam Looney will participate in a live Politico web chat on the economic implications of the end of the year issues before Congress, including payroll tax break, the Bush-era tax cuts and unemployment benefits.
A Financial Times story features a new Hamilton Project discussion paper proposing the creation of a Dislocation Workers Training (DWT) program to distribute grants to displaced workers so they can obtain longer-term training to substantially increase their earnings.
In The Atlantic, Derek Thompson discusses a new Hamilton Project proposal by Louis S. Jacobson, Daniel G. Sullivan, and Robert J. LaLonde to create a Displaced Worker Training (DWT) program to train workers who lost high-tenured jobs.
Today, The Hamilton Project presented Harry J. Holzer with the Hamilton Project’s 2011 Policy Innovation Prize for the best proposal to create jobs and enhance productivity.
The Birmingham News cites The Hamilton Project’s most recent piece on the “job gap”, which is currently 12.3 million jobs nationwide.
The Hamilton Project explores the experiences of workers who lost their jobs during the height of the Great Recession and finds that even those workers who have found new employment often earn significantly less than before.
Hamilton Project Director Michael Greenstone tells The Atlantic that if median earnings had kept pace with average earnings--as they did prior to the 1970s--the median man's earnings would be $41,875 instead of today's $33,000.
In The Atlantic, Derek Thompson cities recent Hamilton Project data about the decline of wages for men since 1970 in a piece about wage trends in industries and cities across America.
In a recent Marketplace interview, Policy Director Adam Looney speaks to the longer term crisis facing the average American man, saying “if you look at how the median man is doing today relative to how he was doing in 1969 or 1970, you’d see that after adjusting for inflation his annual earnings are down 28 percent.”
Over the past 40 years, U.S. GDP per capita has more than doubled, but the median male in the 25-64 age group now earns 28 percent less. Drawing on previous work by The Hamilton Project, Michael Greenstone and Adam Looney address some of the workforce challenges plaguing American men.