Papers

The 2021 expansion of the Child Tax Credit led to a historic reduction in poverty in the United States. This essay investigates how the CTC affected child poverty in states and finds that poverty reductions were the highest in low-cost, high poverty states.

Wendy Edelberg and Melissa Kearney make the case for a novel and efficient Child Tax Credit design that increases the value of the CTC and addresses common concerns about expansion.

In-kind nutrition benefits—both in the form of prepared meals and grocery vouchers—support a healthy and hunger-free childhood. 

Immigration is good for the U.S. economy and for the fiscal picture at the federal level, but some local areas experience adverse fiscal impacts when new immigrants arrive. Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson propose a transparent system for redistributing resources from the federal government to these localities.

In a policy proposal, Jennifer Hunt identifies reforms to the U.S. immigration system that would increase its economic benefits to the native born, enforce its fairness, and strengthen the application of its laws.  

Robert Greenstein identifies priorities for expanding the Child Tax Credit. Pulling from research on the credit's impact, he urges strengthening the CTC for low-income children as much as possible.

In this economic analysis, we determine the degree to which firms that are looking to hire a significant number of workers can expand employment (a “hot” labor market) or cannot (a “tight” labor market). This analysis suggests that a high job opening-to-unemployment rate ratio overstates how hard it is for firms to hire and that the job openings-to-hires and job opening-to-net hires ratios are worthwhile additions to the list of indicators that assess the state of the labor market. 

Nine economic facts about the service sector illustrate recent trends in spending, employment, and inflation as the country continues to rebalance. 

To build the intellectual foundations, data, and analytics needed to inform national technology strategy, Erica R.H. Fuchs proposes the creation of a national capability for cross-mission critical technology analytics.

A modern approach to industrial policy must target "good-jobs externalities" and include the service sector, Dani Rodrik argues. He proposes two specific initiatives: one at the local level and the other at the federal level.

Defying expectations, the business sector appears to have weathered the COVID pandemic and found a renewed gear of dynamism in the process. This analysis looks at the outcomes of initial business closings, employment impacts, new business formations, and restructuring of business activities.

Robert Greenstein looks back at the last four decades of social programs to assess factors affecting social programs' political strength, as well as their poverty-reducing impacts, their take-up rates, and issues related to program access.

Significant proposed changes to tax policy would bring the US system more in line with the new consensus on international corporate tax policy. These six economic facts present background on motivations and goals for many of the features of the international framework.

In the United States, COVID-19 triggered a sharp economic downturn. Yet, the ensuing economic recovery was faster and stronger than nearly any forecaster anticipated due in part to the swift, aggressive, and creative fiscal and monetary policy response in the U.S. While the next recession most likely won’t be triggered by a pandemic, the response can be informed by lessons learned from the COVID-19 recession. 

Examines the use and value of nontraditional data sources, such as private payroll service providers and restaurant reservation services.

Examines the role of monetary policy in keeping interest rates low in the wake of a surge in federal borrowing to assess whether a similar increase in borrowing could be repeated in future recessions.

Examines the impact of the pandemic and related policy responses on children.

Looks at the nearly $1 trillion that the federal government provided to state and local governments.

Part I:  Reviews the aid offered those among the roughly 50  million homeowners with mortgages who struggled to make payments because of the pandemic. Part II: Reviews the aid offered those among the roughly 44  million renters who struggled to make payments.

Surveys the newly created federal subsidies and loans provided to businesses in the first year of the pandemic and also examine the additional lending and corporate bond purchases by the Federal Reserve.

Examines the more than $800 billion in cash that was distributed to all but the highest-income households in the three rounds of Economic Impact Payments (EIPs).

Reviews the substantial expansion of UI—supplementing state-provided benefits, expanding eligibility to those not traditionally eligible, and extending the duration of benefits.

Reviews the macroeconomic impact of the breadth of the economic policy responses that produced a recovery that, while stronger than generally anticipated and stronger than those of other advanced economies, has also been accompanied by an unwelcome increase in inflation.

A Hamilton Project analysis on how household balance sheets have evolved since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic finds that, in aggregate, households’ financial positions in 2022 are remarkedly improved relative to 2019.