Papers

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented the United States with a set of unique public health and economic challenges. Economically, the crisis has negatively affected businesses, the labor market, and households. In this set of 10 facts, Wendy Edelberg, Kristen Broady, Lauren Bauer, and Jimmy O’Donnell assess the extent of these economic damages and provide an overview of existing policy interventions.  

The COVID-19 pandemic poses an existential threat to small businesses, with more than 400,000 lost since the crisis began. Many small businesses are financially fragile and not equipped to weather a prolonged period of substantially reduced revenues. In this proposal, Steven Hamilton of The George Washington University calls for a significant expansion of refundable tax credits to help support small businesses through this crisis.

Some of the starkest differences between women and minorities' participation in the innovation process arises in the practice and commercialization of invention. The proposals put forward here would address each of these phases of the innovation process.

The COVID-19 pandemic has taken a disproportionate toll on Black Americans—yet these unequal outcomes are not novel challenges. Bradley Hardy and Trevon Logan outline several pre-pandemic conditions that have impeded Black Americans’ economic security and increased their vulnerability to the current crisis.

In this blog post, Lauren Bauer, Abigail Pitts, Krista Ruffini, and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach find that Pandemic EBT reduced food hardship experienced by low-income families with children and lifted at least 2.7-3.9 million children out of hunger.

The COVID-19 public health crisis, the economic shock triggered by the pandemic, and public policy, business, and individual responses to the pandemic together have provoked the sharpest and fastest economic downturn in U.S. history. Wendy Edelberg and Jay Shambaugh discuss how the current crisis fits into historic context and what will be the long-lasting economic consequences. 

David Autor and Elisabeth Reynolds ask whether the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the conventional wisdom about automation and inequality in the United States over the past four decades. They make four projections about a rapidly automating post-COVID-19 economy: increasing telework, city de-densification, large-firm consolidation, and forced automation, all of which have significant, negative consequences for low wage workers and economic inequality. 

The economic crisis in the wake of the pandemic is changing the business landscape, exacerbating concerns about the state of competition in the U.S. economy.  Nancy Rose documents how some large, well-positioned firms have dramatically increased their market share, accelerating trends seen prior to the pandemic. 

The economic damages of the COVID-19 pandemic are not being well captured by current labor market statistics that show both permanent damage to employment relationships and labor force attachment as well as a surge of workers who have experienced a temporary loss of work and income. In this essay, Betsey Stevenson of the University of Michigan explores the many ways the COVID-19 recession has affected the labor market, showing that the labor market effects have not been evenly borne across workers and that the scarring effects of this recession will likely lead to high long-term unemployment and weakened labor market attachment for years to come.   

Improving labor productivity is important to sustain economic output and power long-run growth—yet productivity growth has generally declined over the past half century. Emily Moss, Ryan Nunn, and Jay Shambaugh consider explanations for the slowdown in productivity growth as well as the public policies that can help restore it.

A Hamilton Project proposal by Lisa Larrimore Ouellette and Heidi Williams of Stanford University offers several reforms to the U.S. patent system. Improving the effectiveness of the patent system can catalyze technological innovation, a key driver of long-term economic and productivity growth.

John Van Reenen of MIT and the Sloan School of Management proposes an ambitious Grand Innovation Challenge Fund that would increase U.S. investment in research and development (R&D). The fund will give a much-needed boost to innovation and productivity and tackle some of the most important challenges of our age. 

In 2017, over 15 million workers (about 10 percent of the total U.S. workforce) were in alternative work arrangements. In this economic analysis, Ryan Nunn and Jimmy O'Donnell explore the characteristics of these workers, analyze their unique economic outcomes, and assess policy reforms that can help provide more security for these workers.

This interactive allows users to find out how many people and SNAP households lived in places that would have lost the protection of a SNAP work requirement waiver during the Great Recession (in 2009) and during an expansion (in 2018) had the Trump Administration's final rule been in place.

A well-functioning health-care sector supports well-being and is a prerequisite for a well-functioning economy. Unfortunately, the problems with U.S. health care—from high prices to excessive administrative costs to insufficient competition—are substantial. These 12 facts about the economics of U.S. health care provide context for important policy discussions.

The United States spends a larger share of its GDP on health care than any other advanced economy. This high private sector health-care spending in the United States is driven mostly by higher prices, with little evidence to suggest that high prices reflect better quality of care. In this proposal, Michael Chernew, Leemore Dafny, and Maximilian Pany discuss how price regulations could be used to constrain commercial provider prices in an efficient manner.

U.S. health-care spending on administrative costs far exceeds the amount necessary to deliver effective health care. David Cutler proposes several reforms to reduce administrative health-care costs and improve satisfaction for both patients and providers.    

Martin Gaynor of Carnegie Mellon University describes the substantial consolidation that has occurred in health-care markets, showing that it is has generally resulted in higher prices without gains in quality or other improvements. Gaynor proposes three types of policy reforms that would increase competition in health care and improve market functioning.

Taxation is an enduring focus of economic policy debates. This book presents a series of policy options, authored by leading tax experts and backed by rigorous analysis, to increase federal revenue in ways that are both efficient and equitable. The policies include better tax enforcement, improved, corporate taxation, increased taxation of wealth, and taxes on some transactions. 

How the government raises tax revenue has critical implications for economic prosperity. Moss, Nunn, and Shambaugh provide a framework for assessing various tax policies and their implications for growth and inequality.

One driver of high inequality and low intergenerational mobility is the inefficient and inequitable way that inheritances are currently taxed. In this proposal, Lily Batchelder describes reforms that would raise revenue and put inherited income on a more level playing field with income earned from work.  

The United States has high levels of income and wealth inequality, in part because of shortcomings in how we tax concentrated income and wealth. To raise revenue and more effectively tax income from wealth, Greg Leiserson explores several key design considerations and discusses four potential approaches to wealth taxation. 

The federal government requires more funding to sustain economic growth and opportunity, and raising such funds may require new sources of tax revenue. In this proposal, Antonio Weiss and Laura Kawano propose a financial transaction tax that would raise substantial revenue (largely from high earners) without hindering market functioning. 

Retirement and health-care commitments necessitate steadily rising spending at a time when the federal government is already missing other opportunities to make valuable public investments. William Gale proposes a value-added tax—paired with a refundable credit to all households—in order to raise revenue in an efficient and progressive manner.