Papers

Nine economic facts about the service sector illustrate recent trends in spending, employment, and inflation as the country continues to rebalance. 

To build the intellectual foundations, data, and analytics needed to inform national technology strategy, Erica R.H. Fuchs proposes the creation of a national capability for cross-mission critical technology analytics.

A modern approach to industrial policy must target "good-jobs externalities" and include the service sector, Dani Rodrik argues. He proposes two specific initiatives: one at the local level and the other at the federal level.

Defying expectations, the business sector appears to have weathered the COVID pandemic and found a renewed gear of dynamism in the process. This analysis looks at the outcomes of initial business closings, employment impacts, new business formations, and restructuring of business activities.

Robert Greenstein looks back at the last four decades of social programs to assess factors affecting social programs' political strength, as well as their poverty-reducing impacts, their take-up rates, and issues related to program access.

Significant proposed changes to tax policy would bring the US system more in line with the new consensus on international corporate tax policy. These six economic facts present background on motivations and goals for many of the features of the international framework.

In the United States, COVID-19 triggered a sharp economic downturn. Yet, the ensuing economic recovery was faster and stronger than nearly any forecaster anticipated due in part to the swift, aggressive, and creative fiscal and monetary policy response in the U.S. While the next recession most likely won’t be triggered by a pandemic, the response can be informed by lessons learned from the COVID-19 recession. 

Examines the use and value of nontraditional data sources, such as private payroll service providers and restaurant reservation services.

Examines the role of monetary policy in keeping interest rates low in the wake of a surge in federal borrowing to assess whether a similar increase in borrowing could be repeated in future recessions.

Examines the impact of the pandemic and related policy responses on children.

Looks at the nearly $1 trillion that the federal government provided to state and local governments.

Part I:  Reviews the aid offered those among the roughly 50  million homeowners with mortgages who struggled to make payments because of the pandemic. Part II: Reviews the aid offered those among the roughly 44  million renters who struggled to make payments.

Surveys the newly created federal subsidies and loans provided to businesses in the first year of the pandemic and also examine the additional lending and corporate bond purchases by the Federal Reserve.

Examines the more than $800 billion in cash that was distributed to all but the highest-income households in the three rounds of Economic Impact Payments (EIPs).

Reviews the substantial expansion of UI—supplementing state-provided benefits, expanding eligibility to those not traditionally eligible, and extending the duration of benefits.

Reviews the macroeconomic impact of the breadth of the economic policy responses that produced a recovery that, while stronger than generally anticipated and stronger than those of other advanced economies, has also been accompanied by an unwelcome increase in inflation.

A Hamilton Project analysis on how household balance sheets have evolved since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic finds that, in aggregate, households’ financial positions in 2022 are remarkedly improved relative to 2019.

Betsey Stevenson reviews what has happened to women’s employment and labor force participation in the recovery from the pandemic.

In a new economic analysis, Bradley Hardy, Georgetown University, and Trevon Logan, The Ohio State University, revisit their previous work for Hamilton Project and assess the economic recovery of Black Americans throughout the pandemic.

In these Economic Facts, the Hamilton Project reviews recent economic data to provide context for assessing the state of the economic recovery and highlight areas that remain short of a return to normal.

In a new framing paper, Mitchell Barnes, Lauren Bauer, Wendy Edelberg, Sara Estep, Robert Greenstein, and Moriah Macklin examine the U.S. social insurance system. They consider the social insurance system as a whole as well as its component parts, providing an overview of major federal programs in the areas of education and workforce development, health, income support, nutrition, and housing opportunity.

In this proposal, Elizabeth Davis and Aaron Sojourner of the University of Minnesota propose an ambitious vision to increase federal funding for Early Childhood Care and Education (ECE) to ensure every American family and child has access to high-quality affordable child care during the first five years of life.

In a new policy proposal, Tanya Byker and Elena Patel propose the creation of a federal Paid Parental and Medical Leave (PPML) program. The proposal would establish a partial wage replacement system, extended to all eligible wage employees, to supplement income during work disruptions due to the arrival of a child or due to a personal or a family member’s illness.

In this proposal Robert Collinson, Ingrid Gould Ellen, and Benjamin Keys propose a plan to support homeowners and renters to stabilize households and housing markets during future economic downturns. Their proposal would create new emergency rental assistance accounts for low-income households; implement an automatic, three-month forbearance period for vulnerable mortgage borrowers in response to elevated local unemployment; and establish a permanent tax credit exchange program that would allow states to exchange tax credits for direct subsidies at a fiscally neutral price when demand from tax credit investors falls.